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Nov 27, 2018

Hungary’s 2018 growth forecasts are expected to come in way above expected

Emerging markets analysts at Morgan Stanley said they had upgraded their GDP estimates again, and now see growth at 4.6 percent in 2018 and 3.8 percent in 2019

Hungary’s 2018 growth forecasts are expected to come in way above expected.

Figures show that the strong growth performance in the third quarter suggests that full-year growth will be above what was previously predicted.

In its new CEEMEA Economic Outlook report, emerging markets analysts at Morgan Stanley said they had upgraded their GDP estimates again, and now see growth at 4.6 percent in 2018 and 3.8 percent in 2019.

“Our first stab at 2020 sees growth at 3.2 percent,” the report states. This moderation would leave Hungary still as a comfortable outperformer compared with the euro area, and broadly in line with the CEE region overall, they said.

“This may not seem remarkable in light of recent performance. However, seasoned watchers will remember how Hungary had been branded as a serial growth underperformer in the pre- and post-crisis years. Since 2014, this has clearly not been the case. Much of this catching up owes to a recovery in domestic demand, mostly household consumption,” analysts said.