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Apr 06, 2018

What do the latest polls say?

The public opinion surveys of all of the major pollsters in Hungary say that the current governing parties are the most likely to prevail this weekend.

In the run-up to this Sunday’s general elections, here’s what the public opinion pollsters are saying.

The latest numbers from Medián forecast a two-thirds majority (53 percent of votes among decided voters) for the governing parties, a growth attributed to the mobilization of rural voters (up six percent in the last three weeks). The pollsters say this would translate into 142 mandates out of 199 seats in the parliament. According to Medián, the general public sentiment favors the ruling parties: for the first time since the autumn of 2010, the absolute majority of respondents think that Hungary is headed in a good direction.

Contrary to Závecz Research Institute, which predicts a rise in Jobbik’s popularity, Medián sees a decrease in Jobbik’s popularity since January, anticipating 22 seats for the party. The estimates say that MSZP-PM would secure 19 mandates, while LMP and DK take 8 and 7, respectively. Závecz Research calcultes 47 per cent support for the ruling parties among likely voters, 19 percent for Jobbik, 13 percent for MSZP-PM, 8 percent for DK and 6 percent for LMP. Republikon Institute also forecast a strong showing (49 percent) for the Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance, 19 percent for Jobbik, 17 percent for MSZP-Párbeszéd, 5 percent for DK, and 4 percent for LMP, among likely voters.

Meanwhile, Nézőpont Institute reported that every second Hungarian would like to see Viktor Orbán again as prime minister, a figure higher than the other six opposition contenders combined. MSZP PM’s Gergely Karácsony wields 13 percent support, Bernadett Szél is supported by 8, Gábor Vona by 7 and Ferenc Gyurcsány by 3 percent.