PM Orbán’s report, which was made public for clarity, outlines the urgent need for a new European strategy independent of the US's pro-war policy, emphasizing the importance of engaging with global players like China and Türkiye and maintaining diplomatic communication with both Ukraine and Russia to foster conditions for peace talks.
Below is a summary of the key points from PM Orbán's report:
1. The intensity of the military conflict is expected to escalate significantly in the near future.
2. Both sides of the conflict are determined to deepen their involvement, with neither party showing interest in initiating ceasefire or peace negotiations. External intervention is essential to reduce tensions and find a resolution.
3. Three major global players—the European Union, the United States, and China—have the capacity to influence the situation. Türkiye, as a successful mediator between Ukraine and Russia, is also crucial.
4. China will continue advocating for a ceasefire and peace talks as per its international policy. However, China will only become more actively involved if success seems likely, which is currently not the case.
5. The United States is preoccupied with its presidential campaign. The current administration is unable to shift its pro-war policy, and without political leadership, US bureaucracy will continue on its established path.
6. During talks with President Trump, it was evident that foreign policy will have a minimal role in his campaign, which is dominated by domestic issues. President Trump is expected to act as a peace broker immediately after a potential election victory, with detailed and well-founded plans ready to implement.
7. In the likely event of President Trump's victory, the financial burden between the US and the EU regarding the support of Ukraine is expected to shift significantly to the EU's disadvantage.
8. The EU's current strategy has mirrored the US's pro-war policy, lacking a sovereign and independent European strategy. Prime Minister Orbán proposes discussing whether continuing this policy is rational and suggests beginning a new chapter aimed at decreasing tensions and creating conditions for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.
9. Specific proposals for consideration:
a. Conduct high-level political talks with China on the modalities of the next peace conference.
b. Maintain current high-level political contacts with Ukraine, reopen direct lines of diplomatic communication with Russia, and rehabilitate such contacts in political communication.
c. Launch a coordinated political offensive towards the Global South to regain their appreciation and reduce the global isolation of the transatlantic community.
PM Orbán hopes that his reports and suggestions will contribute to possible proposals and initiatives presented to EU leaders at an appropriate occasion.