Századvég: Europeans oppose sending troops and weapons to Ukraine

Amid escalating rhetoric from the European political elite in support of military aid to Ukraine, the latest survey from the Századvég Foundation’s Europe Project reveals a growing divide between policymakers and public opinion. In 2025, for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict, a majority of EU citizens now oppose the delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

According to the findings, 49 percent of Europeans are against weapons shipments, compared to 44 percent in favor. This represents a clear reversal from previous years, and marks a steady decline in support—down six percentage points from 2023. Simultaneously, the number of EU member states where the majority of the population opposes military aid rose from 12 in 2023 and 2024 to 16 in 2025

Despite this shift, key European leaders continue to pursue expanded military assistance. In early 2025, the President of the European Commission called for accelerating arms and ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, a €800 billion rearmament plan was announced to strengthen European defense budgets, specifically citing the need to support Ukraine during this “critical moment.”

The divide is even starker on the question of troop deployments. Századvég’s research shows that 67 percent of EU citizens oppose sending their own country’s soldiers to Ukraine. In no EU member state does support for military intervention reach a majority, and in many—particularly Hungary (90 percent opposition) and Bulgaria (85 percent)—the rejection is overwhelming. Only Sweden and Finland approach a more balanced public stance.

Nevertheless, several governments have adopted policies suggesting deeper military commitment. Denmark has expanded conscription to include women, Norway is significantly boosting defense expenditures, and Poland plans to double the size of its army. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s defense minister dismissed peace talks as “completely irrelevant,” declaring that Europe must fully arm itself to prove its commitment to Ukraine.

Századvég concludes that the gap between the preferences of European citizens and the decisions of political elites is widening. As support for direct military assistance wanes, especially among the broader population, the insistence on escalation by certain EU leaders appears increasingly out of sync with public sentiment. The 2025 findings underscore a fundamental tension in European policymaking: while Brussels pushes for militarization, the people of Europe continue to favor restraint.