Gergő Kereki and Zoltán Szalai
A completely new foreign policy landscape awaits Hungary in 2025. What direct, tangible benefits will Donald Trump’s presidency of the US bring to Hungarian families?
The most immediate benefit of Trump’s victory will be economic. America used to be the second largest investor in the Hungarian economy, but now it’s only the fourth largest. This is linked to the fact that the Democratic administration has explicitly discriminated against Hungary. The US has terminated the double taxation treaty, has constantly sent a signal to US economic actors that Hungary is a problem country, and has made travel difficult through visa restrictions. With Trump’s victory, this anti-Hungarian policy will come to an end. There will be a trade deal, there will be a fair visa procedure, and high-tech American investors will come to Hungary.
What impact might Trump’s victory have on the political structures of the Western world?
Since the end of the Cold War, Western politics has been dominated by a struggle between liberal forces and patriotic forces. Up until 2010 the liberals dominated the field; but in 2010 the Hungarians came along, and with our new constitution we have a completely different vision of the future. Then patriotic forces like ours gained strength and scored victories in succession: first the Poles; then Trump won in 2016; the British left the EU; the Czechs gained in strength; and, most recently, the Italians and Slovaks. Above the hustle and bustle of everyday life, looking to a longer horizon, a great civilisational struggle is taking place within the Western world. This civilisational debate is taking shape around questions of historical destiny. These include migration, the future of families, gender, Christian tradition, war and peace, and economic and business freedom. If patriots form the majority in Western civilisation, then there will be no migration, no gender gibberish and no war, but there will be economic and business freedom and Christian values. The US presidential election has radically changed the power dynamic in this dimension too, tilting it in favour of the patriots. This is good for all Hungarians.
You’ve spoken to the future US president several times since his election, and last week you travelled to Florida to meet him. What was your impression? What was the atmosphere like during these meetings?
Since 2010, we Hungarians are the only ones in international politics who have been consistently saying what Trump has been saying; so in America we’re seen as being “Trump before Trump”. We were patriots when in the West the wind was still in the sails of the progressive liberals. But in politics size matters. America is a world empire with a huge GDP and military. Hungary mustn’t overestimate itself, and we mustn’t imagine that the world is preoccupied with finding solutions to our historical problems. Therefore President Trump isn’t our saviour, but our brother-in-arms, a patriot who’s fighting for the same values in his world as we’re fighting for here in Hungary.
Has he told you what he’s intending? What kind of world will we be waking up to in the early days of the Trump era?
American Republicans carry with them all the positive legacies of the Wild West. They don’t overthink things, they take action rapidly, radically, resolutely, and with few limitations. They have clear plans. In terms of substance, what will happen in America will be the same as what we’ve been trying to do in Hungary since 2010. Their programme for governance has been written by research institutes, the key intellectual leaders of which have been in a long-standing working relationship with us. They’re thoroughly prepared to govern.
What will be the “Trump effect” on the EU?
Brussels’ ambition to build a United States of Europe governed by European institutions rather than nation states is faltering. Countries that oppose this imperial notion will be strengthened, and the Brussels imperial centre will be weakened. Moreover, on the question of war the new US leadership is opposed to the pro-war elite in Brussels, and makes no secret of this. He’s a man of peace, he hates bloodshed, he didn’t start any wars during his first administration, and he ended the ones he could.
You also met Elon Musk. What was your impression of him?
Musk is living in a technological dimension ahead of humanity, sending us back his proposals from the future. I look forward to a successful collaboration with him.
What kind of collaboration will it be?
For example, we’d like to work with him in the satellite sector. Up to now Hungary hasn’t had any satellites of its own, but now we’re building them and launching them into space. We’re looking for partners both in building them and in launching them. This is the task of 4iG.
What do you expect from the future German chancellor, Friedrich Merz? Although he claims to be on the Right, but in fact he’s even more pro-war than Olaf Scholz.
The chancellor who will take office after the February elections will be my fifth German counterpart: I started with Helmut Kohl, then Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel, and now Scholz. The German economy is in a serious situation, facing strategic problems. One of the problems for their economy is the trade war with China, and another is that they’ve cut themselves off from the cheap Russian energy that up to now has made them competitive. For the German economy these two factors are like gunshots to the lungs, which is why we’re now hearing these rattling sounds. It’s not me saying this, but Mario Draghi, who has shocked the Brussels elite with his study. In intellectual terms, the Draghi Report has been the most important event this year. It clearly states that, with such high energy prices in Europe, we’ll all be going bankrupt. Germany’s new leader must provide answers to these questions.
What do you expect in Syria? What changes in world politics will the events there bring? Will Syrians in Europe return home, or will there be an even bigger wave of migration towards our continent?
It’s not yet clear which direction Syria will go in. If terrorist groups take power and a unity government of consolidation doesn’t come to power, millions of people will again try to enter Europe illegally, significantly increasing the security risks. The situation is explosive, so anyone who intervenes in the Syrian conflict without due caution is playing with fire. Anyone who claims that Hungary is also involved in this conflict – for example, by saying that the Syrian President came here – is dragging our country into a serious conflict. Instead of sensationalism, both the media and politicians should speak in a responsible way.
Two years ago, you announced the foreign policy principle of connectivity. How do you see this Hungarian strategy working in the near future?
After the US presidential inauguration, Hungary can claim to have strategic relations with the United States and China, while maintaining a tried and tested relationship with Russia, and a friendly relationship with Türkiye. Moreover, Meloni’s patriotic Italy is also an ally, and we have a balanced relationship with the French. The only unresolved issues we have are with the Germans, but those can be resolved. In the heavens of Hungarian diplomacy, the stars have perhaps never been aligned so favourably.
The economy. This year, 2024, hasn’t been one of our brightest. Speaking about 2025 you’ve said that “a fantastic year is coming”. After a period of inflation, in what areas can the Government make a positive difference that will be tangible for the average person?
A week ago we concluded a minimum wage agreement with unions and employers, which will bring a 40 per cent minimum wage increase over three years. We’ll double the child tax credit in two steps. A new housing policy will be introduced, making it much easier for young people to buy or rent a home. A major student accommodation building programme will be launched to free students from the oppression of high rents. A worker’s credit scheme will be launched for young people already in work. A continuous year-on-year pay rise for teachers is another unprecedented measure. The Sándor Demján Programme is coming, in which small and medium-sized enterprises in Hungary will receive support like none they’ve ever seen before.
Where will the money for this come from?
In 2025 the Hungarian economy will have access to significant financial resources. The interest burden on public debt will fall from 4.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent. This means that in 2025 less of the money generated in Hungary will need to be used to repay public debt. In addition, the huge industrial investments made at great cost in the past will enter Hungarian industry as new capacity and become productive. In 2025 BMW will start operations in Debrecen, BYD in Szeged, the battery plant in Debrecen will open, Mercedes will be close to completing its new investment in Kecskemét, the Paks Nuclear Power Plant expansion will be picking up speed, and next year the Budapest–Belgrade railway line will be opened.
Some analysts claim that the outcome of the 2026 election will be dependent on the economic cycle. What do you think?
This is a rule of thumb. Hungary will not only have growth in 2025, but also financial stability. Since 2010 we’ve achieved the feat of not only winning elections, but also reducing the budget deficit compared to the year prior to the election. This is a rare achievement, and one of which I’m proud.
Don’t you see the weak and volatile forint exchange rate as a domestic political risk? As the new head of the Central Bank, is Mihály Varga expected to stabilise it?
According to Hungarian tradition, the head of the Central Bank Governor is called the Governor. It’s the strongest executive appellation, which is associated with great power and complete independence. We don’t dictate expectations. I’ve even asked Mihály Varga if we can continue to call each other by our first names. I’ve managed to stay on first name terms with György Matolcsy.
And what did he say? Will you still be on first name terms?
He said he hasn’t yet taken office, so we’ll see. This is what Cumans are like. Seriously, there’s a difference between the forint exchange rate and the state of the Hungarian economy. It’s impossible for the value of the Hungarian economy to justify 390 forints [to the euro] one week and 410 forints a week later. The Hungarian economy can’t change that much in a week – either for better or worse. So the question is whether the forint is reflecting the stability of the Hungarian economy’s fundamentals. I don’t think it is. This movement shows that it’s not the performance of the economy that’s changing, but the amount of money that can be obtained by speculating on the forint. The reason the forint is being pulled around is because money can be made by moving the value of the forint. This kind of speculation is prohibited in some countries, but unfortunately it’s part of the financial culture in Hungary. This is the world of sharks like George Soros. It’s not the Hungarian economy that excites them, but the profit they can make by speculating against the forint. The Central Bank will have to deal with this, and all the Government can do is pursue a stable and predictable economic policy.
How do you assess Hungary’s EU Presidency?
Hungary is a Christian country, and this also entails obligations. While wars plague Europe, for the Hungarian Presidency it was a moral issue to do everything possible to promote peace. What Hungary has done during the six months of its Presidency is far more than what was expected of it, judging by its weight. Six months ago there was a stigma attached to even raising the idea of peace; but now everyone is talking about peace. We’ve also tabled a proposal for a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange. We can’t rule out the possibility that at Christmas there will be many thousands fewer orphans than there would be without the Hungarian Presidency. The enlargement of the Schengen Area is another of our great successes, and in this we’re happy to have been able to help Romania and Bulgaria. After fifteen years, accession negotiations have finally begun between Albania and the European Union, and we’ve also closed important chapters with the other Balkan countries, thus advancing the process of European Union enlargement towards the Balkans. We’ve also concluded the Competitiveness Pact: a package of pro-market proposals aimed at economic stimulation.
After the European Parliament elections, European party politics also became livelier. The Patriots for Europe group, formed by Fidesz and its allies, is effectively the opposition to Brussels. When will this become the European majority?
Our large-scale victory in the European Parliament election in Hungary has given us the opportunity to take the initiative in European party politics. The founding of the Patriots is only the first pawn on the chessboard, only the opening move in the transformation of the European institutions. We’re the third strongest political group, and the organised political opposition to the imperial policy of Brussels. At last we have a strong alternative to the bureaucratic elite in Brussels. The future belongs to the Patriots.
Poland will replace our country in the EU Presidency. Donald Tusk and his government consider the Government of Hungary to be an enemy. How are Polish–Hungarian relations now, and what can we expect from the Polish Presidency?
The Polish patriots were removed from government and a liberal rainbow coalition was formed. We are patriots, and they see us as the enemy. In addition, the Polish liberals have invented a new concept of the rule of law: the rule of lawfare. They use this new interpretation of the rule of law and legal instruments to crack down on political opponents. Polish–Hungarian relations are at a low point at the moment, because the liberal Polish rainbow coalition is unable to distinguish between party and state politics – even though Poland and Hungary have strategic interests on which we should be helping rather than weakening each other.
Will Hungary accept Polish political refugees?
We offer asylum to anyone who faces political persecution in their home country.
Let’s move on to domestic politics. In January we hardly thought that this year would bring so many changes in domestic politics. There were many difficulties for the civic community of the Right: the loss of the President of the Republic; the loss of the Minister of Justice; and the loss of the President of the Calvinist Church’s synod, its bishop, who many still hold responsible for the presidential pardon affair. And the opposition got Péter Magyar. What lessons can be drawn from what happened?
The most important is that our historic churches are strong enough to overcome such upheavals. There was no reason to drag us Calvinists into this political scandal. The political leader bears the responsibility for every political decision. A political leader can never shift responsibility to his or her advisors. Among such advisers are Catholics, Calvinists, Evangelicals, and indeed those who follow the Old Testament. It’s not right to involve them in political decisions – even those taken on the basis of their advice; because the responsibility always lies with the leader. I’m glad that our church has also realised this.
Can the political loss be compensated for?
We’ve lost world stars. We’ve lost not just a head of state and a minister, but two fantastic stars of the political world. Wherever in the world they represented our country, hats were raised and Hungary was spoken of in only the highest terms of praise. This is a huge loss for the entire national community. That’s politics: there are not only glories and electoral victories, but also failures. Ours is a cruel world.
Along with the losses, there were also returns. What do you think of József Szájer’s return to public life? Did he consult you before deciding to play a role?
I’ve known József Szájer since 1982. At first I was just an admirer of his as a law student, because as a first-year student I had to study from his textbook. Even then he was a living legend, and his sophomore paper “Vis major in Roman law” has remained in my memory ever since. Later we became friends, and he was one of the bravest fighters for Fidesz. Despite his personal vicissitudes, I’ve always maintained a friendship with him, and he’s never disappeared from my life. I’m glad to see him active again in the intellectual sphere. His return will certainly bring a qualitative improvement to public life in Hungary, and will be of great benefit to Hungary. József Szájer is a Hungarian patriot whom his country can always count on.
How do you assess the situation of the Opposition and the emergence of Péter Magyar?
In the opposition sphere the project is the same as before; all that’s changed is the protagonist. Péter Magyar’s mission is the same as that of the previous failed candidates: to “Brusselise” Hungary. These are in fact Brussels parties, for whom Hungary is only a field of operations. This was the case with Klára Dobrev’s party, and now it’s no different with the Tisza Party.
Isn’t this a conspiracy theory?
This is practice itself. Brussels has a vested interest in bringing about a change of government in Hungary. The Brussels elite want a government that shoves migration and gender insanity down people’s throats, takes Hungary into war, and doesn’t oppose economic decisions that are harmful to the Hungarian people. They want a government that they can control manually. They already had such a government under Ferenc Gyurcsány. They hoped to have such a government again with his wife. But this scenario failed in 2022, and now a new player is entering. The project’s promoters – its godparents, Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber – have openly said in the European Parliament who it is they want to head the puppet government. This is the state of domestic politics at the end of 2024.
For years, a common criticism of Hungarian public life has been that political conflicts have resulted in the level of public discourse being very low. This year, 2024, may have pushed us further down this slope: secret recordings, nightclub scandals, people being called brain-dead, talk of throwing journalists into the Danube, a spokesperson and a party leader shouting at each other. Is this the kind of campaign we should prepare for?
Brussels’ aims for overthrow of the Government haven’t changed, but the forms they take are surprising. I’ve nothing good to say about the Gyurcsány–Dobrev school, but at least its style remained within the limits of civility – even if its content was occasionally offensive and cunning. Now, however, the style has become brutal. This is a new development that the whole of Hungary must face up to. Many of us feel a sense of surrogate shame when we see these crude, aggressive moments, because we think that we Hungarians are different. But no, unfortunately, we aren’t different. We have to acknowledge that neither common sense, nor reason, nor discernment will help us when faced with blusterers. In the family and in the workplace there can also be some very unpleasant people, who can only be spoken to in their own language. It’s also the job of a governing political force to halt the steamroller of the blusterers. This is also a job we have to do, we who are the country’s largest political community: we’ll do all the work – both what needs to be done in the spirit of Mother Teresa, and what needs to be done to stop the blusterers. The challenger will always choose the weapons. In such cases, if you don’t want to turn away and be a coward, you must also accept the duel with the weapon of the challenger’s choice. We’re a big party, we have people for every weapon, and we do our duty.
Practically since the beginning of the summer the challenger has been campaigning on the platform that nothing in Hungary works anymore, claiming that public services are neglected and of poor quality. How do you respond to the accusation that under your government public services haven’t improved – or have hardly improved?
There have been several such actions in Hungarian politics. The most recent was by Péter Jakab. He waved a sack of potatoes in front of us in the parliamentary chamber. There’s a solution for that too. Dragonhead to poison a dragon. Like others, Hungary isn’t a perfect country either, its government could do a better job, and obviously so could the Prime Minister – we can never be satisfied. In my world, the attitude is that the ecclesia must always be reformed. Things can always be done better. But it’s nonsense to say that Hungary isn’t moving forward and that our lives aren’t visibly changing, from the smallest village to the capital. This is the point at which the ice always breaks under the feet of the blusterers. Reality matters, and facts are our allies. In 2010, one unit of money was being spent on education, and now it’s three units; and the same is true of health care. This doesn’t mean that everything’s fine, of course – but a lot more is fine than was before. Where public services are concerned, there will never be a moment when everyone’s satisfied. Because when you’ve got to the end of your programme for fixing up hospitals, schools and social institutions, you can go back to the beginning – because what you fixed up first needs to be fixed up again. This goes with the territory. You can make political points out of this, but it will only amount to what we saw in the European Parliament elections in June. In elections what pays off is real governance and work done every day.
One of the sharpest accusations is that Romania has already caught up with Hungary. What does the Hungarian prime minister say to this?
At such times, I always think of the song by Tamás Cseh, “My Uncle Reality”. The Tisza Party’s lies flow as incessantly as a river. The simplistic argument that people in Romania consume more than those in Hungary and therefore live better is nonsense on stilts. Hungarian family savings are among the strongest in the European Union. Lies have no legs.
You’ve met Pope Francis every year since 2021. By contrast, the dynamics of the relationship between the Hungarian Right and the head of the Catholic Church are interesting. Why is it important for you to meet the leader of the Catholic Church in person?
There have been differences of opinion between the Vatican and Hungary on the issue of migration. When this issue dominated European politics, it was difficult to see how a fraternal relationship between Hungary and the Vatican, based on deep faith, could be established. But the Holy Spirit is at work. Even the bishops of our church have wisely said that disputes of faith are rare when one is in the trenches. And now Catholics and Calvinists are in a trench fighting against liberal progressivism. Peace-loving, pro-life public figures of good-will across Europe have finally found one another. The Holy Father is a non-political figure, the head of a religious community, with more legitimacy than all the political leaders put together. He’s a source of strength that helps us to keep our countries’ steering wheels turning in the right direction. We should be grateful.