Zsolt Törőcsik: The Hungarian economy shrank by almost half a per cent in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, and the Hungarian Central Statistical Office also reported a decline compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Among the questions I’d like to ask Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are what the reasons behind this are, and what the way out of this situation might be. Good morning.
Good morning.
Analysts have been surprised by the weak data, and last year, when it was planning the budget, the Government was expecting higher growth. What are the reasons for the fact that the Hungarian economy’s performance has been lower than expected?
The way the data is released is that we get the raw data a week or two earlier, so we already knew yesterday’s data in advance. The reasons are also clear: the whole European economy is stagnating, and we’re part of that economy because of the European Union and our membership of it. The fact that, even as a rich country, Austria, for example, has underperformed, is quite surprising; but the Germans are also on the same level as us. In general, the countries that have problems are those that are more strongly linked to the German economic sphere. So there are reasons – but I can tell you frankly that I’m not that interested in them. Of course it’s good to know why things happen, we’re thinking beings after all – but it’s secondary to our work. So what I have to do now in the Government – and over the past week I’ve been discussing this with the ministers, with the ministers responsible for economic affairs – is to not allow ourselves to adopt a posture whereby we start explaining that this is because of reasons beyond our control – basically, because of the war and the money that’s been sent to Ukraine, which the European economy now lacks, leading to its underperformance. Because if we start explaining it, which is incidentally true, we lose our ability to act. So I’m not really interested in what the reason is, I’m interested in how we’re going to be successful, how we’re going to achieve our 2025 targets, through hell or high water, if the sky falls in or whatever wording you choose. We’ll still have our 2025 targets, and we must achieve them. So already last week I discussed with my ministers who needs to do what in order to achieve the 2025 targets. And it doesn’t help to understand that until the European economy gets going it will be two or three times harder for us to get our own economy going – or at best it only helps intellectually. But I don’t want to abandon a single one of the targets that we’ve set for 2025. Even though we were aware of the expected growth figure, this is why in Parliament we’ve pushed through and adopted the biggest tax-cutting programme in Europe. We could also have said that this is how the European economy is going, and that so far these hapless European leaders have sent 140 billion euros to Ukraine. If that money weren’t in Ukraine, but here in the European economy, then there would be growth: not stagnation, but development. This is undoubtedly true, but that’s not influencing us now, and in spite of this we’ve adopted the biggest tax reduction programme in Europe. This basically comprises tax exemptions for mothers. From October those with three children will be exempt, and from 1 January those under 40 with up to two children will be exempt – they won’t have to pay income tax for the rest of their lives. And the following year, from 2027, those under 50 won’t have to pay income tax, and then those under 60. And in the end – in two or three years – we’ll get to the point where any mother in Hungary who has at least two children will never have to pay income tax again in her lifetime. This is a goal that we mustn’t abandon. And the same can be done for small and medium-sized enterprises. We have the Sándor Demján Programme, through which we want to give 1.4 trillion forints to small and medium-sized enterprises. We won’t cut back, restrict or scrap this programme, but we’ll implement it – despite the poor European data, and consequently unfavourable Hungarian data.
We’ll also talk about the situation of the Hungarian economy and what’s needed to achieve this. But on the European side, we see that the EU continues to stand firm in its support for Ukraine, while – through US mediation – there are increasing signs of de-escalation between the Russians and the Ukrainians. So in the current situation what do you think Europe should change in order to improve its economic performance?
Because of the war, Hungary has lost 20 billion euros in three years. Hungary is a country of ten million people. Germany is a country of 84 million. So if we’ve lost 20 billion, how much have the Germans lost? And the other big ones? If all this money was in the European economy, I’m not saying that we’d be living the high life, I’m not saying that; but the fact is that we wouldn’t have problems, and instead we’d be talking about a rate of development that’s higher than expected. So the most important thing we need to understand is that as long as the war continues, and as long as Europe doesn’t turn its back on the war and move to the side of peace, then the economy will be sickly – the whole European economy will be sickly. And now there’s a peace initiative, because the Americans are leading the way. We have one thing to do, and that’s to line up behind the Americans and say that we support President Trump’s peace initiative, and that we want peace as soon as possible. And then I think this would come to pass. But that isn’t what’s happening now: the European leaders still want war, and in opposition to the Americans they’ve decided to support Ukraine in the war. In fact they’re actually trying to obstruct the US president’s attempt to make a successful peace. I think this is a mistake, because I think that is what will happen, and we have to accept it; but until then we’ll lose a lot of money, and we need to accept that we can’t finance and sustain the Ukrainian army or the Ukrainian economy without the United States. Ukraine is a country that can’t sustain itself. So if Western money weren’t going into Ukraine, that state wouldn’t exist. And now, having realised this, instead of limiting the money we send there, the decision’s been taken – by the European People’s Party, which is the strongest political player in European politics and which had its congress a day or two ago – to send even more money. But this can’t be done without the Americans. The President of Ukraine – and I heard this with my own ears, because it was said at a meeting of the European Council – said in person that in the near future they want an army of a million troops, a million soldiers. But they don’t have a cent to maintain it, and they’re demanding – not asking, these are the Ukrainians – from the European Union that, even if the United States doesn’t give money, Europe should maintain these one million Ukrainian troops. This is because they think it’s their right to have such an army. So this will take a huge amount of money. We’re not doing very well, we don’t have very much money, the European economy has been rather unsuccessful over the last ten years and it’s lost competitiveness. And this is instead of using the money that we Europeans have, instead of spending the money we have on ourselves – and not, say, on maintaining a million Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine. We should be strengthening our own armies: the money that they want to spend there could be spent here, for the benefit of our economy, and part of it would go back into the economy through our army. Instead of doing that, for some mysterious reason – there are various speculations as to why – wheelbarrows of money are being wheeled out of Europe. Sackfuls of money – our money too, by the way – are being wheeled out of Europe to Ukraine. Meanwhile, by the way, this spending makes no sense without the Americans. This may go on for a few months, but it will end in failure. So that’s where we stand. But I’ll say it again: we must attend to our own business first; this is Hungary, this is the Hungarian economy, we know its strengths and weaknesses, we must set targets and achieve them. These are big, ambitious goals. So we still expect a very good year in 2025, we want to make it a good year, we’ve set ambitious targets, and we want to achieve them all.
You’ve mentioned the resolution adopted by the European People’s Party at its congress. It includes a commitment to financial and military support for Ukraine, and to its accelerated accession to the EU. What consequences could this have for domestic politics? Because the President of the Tisza Party, which is a member of the European People’s Party, says that when all the conditions and the planned date of accession are known, he’ll call a legally binding referendum on the issue. On such an important issue, which is obviously very important to the People’s Party, what room for manoeuvre can its member parties have?
What’s happening now is that there’s a date, so we know when they want to admit Ukraine. So it’s not worth us burying our heads in the sand and thinking that this will be some distant issue to be decided in the future, because the European People’s Party itself and the head of the European Commission – the number one bureaucrat in the European Union – has announced that it will be by 2030! So that’s four or five years. And the European People’s Party has also said that this should be fast-tracked. So let’s forget all these fairy tales about it being one day, when it’s ready... That’s not what it’s about! It’s about them wanting to let them in now, as quickly as possible. This is why there’s a vote underway in Hungary. So we shouldn’t be talking about what kind of vote there will be one day, because Ukraine’s membership of the EU is knocking on the door; and European leaders – especially the European People’s Party, which is the Tisza Party’s parent party – want to bring them into the EU as quickly as possible. We must prevent this, because it would bankrupt Hungary. Let’s be straightforward: Ukraine’s membership of the European Union would bankrupt the Hungarian economy, and so we must prevent it. This is why a vote’s taking place now. We won’t just need to vote sometime in the future. Here and now! I urge everyone to vote.
But it’s interesting that the European People’s Party is pushing for Ukraine’s membership of the EU. Meanwhile at the “Star of the Profession” Festival, you told young people that if they don’t want to be saddled with millions of Ukrainian workers, they shouldn’t let others make the decision over their heads about Ukraine’s accession. Why is the threat of Ukrainian accession assessed so differently in Brussels and Budapest?
Because the Brusselites think that Ukraine’s accession should be financed by taking out a huge loan. It’s true that they don’t deny that the European Union doesn’t have the money. Nor do they dispute that we can’t pay for it. They think that we’ll take out large joint loans and use these loans to finance Ukraine’s membership. But a loan is debt! And debt will bankrupt us, because if we take out a loan today as we are, in other words when the European economy isn’t competitive, we won’t be able to pay it back later – and our children and grandchildren will be overwhelmed by the whole thing. It will result in huge bankruptcy. And this can be prevented now. So Europe’s lethal level of debt, which will later lead to bankruptcy, must be prevented now. Meanwhile they want to accumulate debt. So this is the reason for the difference. At the same time I think that there are EU countries where there’s no suspicion of anyone who’s already bought into Ukraine. These are countries with big companies over there. And they think that if we send money from Europe, including from Hungary, a large part of that money will end up in their companies. This is exactly what happened with us: when we were admitted to the EU, in the first few years about 80 per cent of the money that came to us went back to the countries from which the money came, because their companies were competitive here. This went on for several years. This was interrupted by the national government, and today the ratio’s much better. Of course there are big foreign companies here, and some EU money goes to them too; but basically today we spend EU money in such a way that it strengthens the Hungarian economy in Hungary, not the foreign economy in Hungary. But that was the situation here too. And we weren’t admitted because we touched their hearts, because they softened to us, or because they suddenly felt Christian compassion. That’s not what happened. They took us in because they calculated that it was worth it for them. And to be honest, if – based on numbers and mathematics – it was worth it for us Hungarians, I’d also support Ukraine’s membership. If it’s worth it for us, then why not? But today that isn’t the case! Today there are countries for whom it would be worth it, because their big companies are already in Ukraine; and then there are those who’d be paying for it. We’re on the wrong side: we’d pay for it, we’d go bankrupt. And that’s why I don’t support their membership.
Given this context and the determination shown by the People’s Party this week, how has the significance of the consultative referendum changed?
It’s become more important. Today it’s obvious that Brussels’ policy of the granting European Union membership to Ukraine on an accelerated basis is wrong and harmful. And this can still be prevented now. If this gets out of hand, if the road roller is already moving forward with full force, and if in two or three years we reach the decision, the gates of the final decision, it will be very difficult. Because stopping a machine that’s already gained momentum is much more difficult than preventing it from gaining momentum. Now we need to open the eyes not only of Hungarians, but also of the citizens of countries in Europe who are in a similar situation to ours, and we need to say, “People, this isn’t only a problem for Hungarians. There are a dozen other countries here who will suffer from this. Speak up, like the Hungarians! Your leaders in Europe are saying what the Hungarians are saying – that this won’t be good! And let’s prevent it – right now!”
Let’s go back to the relationship between the Tisza Party and the People’s Party for one more question, because yesterday you also signed the petition launched by the National Resistance Movement (Nemzeti Ellenállás Mozgalom), calling for Kinga Kollár, the Tisza Party MEP, to disappear from public life, as they put it. She’s the one who’s spoken about the fact that if EU funds don’t arrive in Hungary – and, for example, if Hungarian hospitals aren’t renovated – it will help the Opposition. The President of the Tisza Party reacted to your signature by saying that you’re declaring resistance to fabricated, imaginary enemies. Measuring words against actions, what goal do you see the Tisza Party working for in Brussels: to get the funds, as they claim, or to keep them from coming?
If you don’t mind, I don’t want to debate with the Tisza Party – that can wait for the campaign. Now we have to govern: this is our job. For the development of the country it’s necessary that we get back from the Union budget at least part of the money that we pay into the EU, and that’s repatriated by the foreign companies operating here. That’s our money, it’s ours, it’s not a gift: we get money from the European Union because we allow Western companies to make serious profits here. Of course this is done in a way that’s good for us, so it’s not a gift, but it’s due to us – it’s the Hungarians’ money. Now they’re blocking this. I’ve managed to get some of this, and I’m in continuous negotiations and fights. More than 10 billion euros is in the Hungarians’ account. From this amount we’ll pay a significant part, a percentage of the first three years of the entire increase in teachers’ salaries. This year we can also bring home the sum of one trillion forints. So in Brussels we’re constantly fighting to ensure that the money we’re owed comes here. And there’s no question about what the Tisza Party’s doing: they’ve admitted it. So there’s no point in arguing about what they’re doing, because this lady named Kinga Kollár has said in her own voice that they’re working to prevent us from succeeding, from being able to bring these resources home. She’s said that they’ve prevented, and are continuously preventing, the renovation of fifty hospitals. The result of their work is that the national side and I, who are fighting in Brussels, haven’t yet been able to achieve complete success: we’ve only been able to bring half of the money back home, and they want to prevent the second half coming. She’s said this in her own voice. So I’m not suggesting that we be childish or primitive. The starting point for a discussion is what the facts are. The facts are that this MEP named Kinga Kollár, who earns 7–10 million forints per month, is working every day in Brussels to prevent the national government from bringing home the funds with which we can renovate hospitals, build roads, develop railways, and improve the quality of public services. That’s what they’re working for. This is a matter of fact, and there’s no point in arguing about whether or not they’re doing it: they’ve said it themselves! Anyone in this country with ears could hear it, and everyone knows about it. This is something wicked. So I don’t want to hurt her, and it’s improper to say nasty things to a lady, but this woman named Kinga Kollár is doing something wicked, and it’s harming Hungarians. We also know why, because she said that too: we don’t have to figure it out, it’s not our assumption; she said that she’s doing this evil thing and that she wants Hungary to fail, because then they – the Tisza Party – can come to power. This is the Brussels–Tisza Pact, and it’s a matter of fact. And when I signed this petition, I signed it because I think this isn’t right, and as many of us as possible should raise our voices against it.
By the way, at the congress, Manfred Weber, the re-elected President of the People’s Party, also spoke about a change of government in Hungary in 2026. He didn’t deal with the domestic politics of other countries, he didn’t talk about that. What tools do you think Brussels politicians will be willing to use to achieve a change of government in the coming year?
Here it’s not worth thinking about this as if we have to solve some sort of mystery or riddle, or as if there’s an open question. Well, I was there in the European Parliament last autumn, during the EU Presidency, when I presented our Presidency’s programme. The President of the European People’s Party spoke there, and then representatives of the Tisza Party. He – the leader of the European People’s Party, which unfortunately is the strongest party at the moment – turned to me and said to my face, “You’re finished, your government’s finished, you’re on your way out. The new government will be formed by the Tisza Party.” This is what they said. So there’s no point in thinking about whether in Brussels they want a puppet government instead of the current government: they told us to our faces! And now they’ve said it again. So it’s time for Hungarians to wake up and see that there’s a big international force with a centre in Brussels, a big war network, which is working to have a government – a government for Hungary – that will implement what they ask of it from Brussels. That decision can be made, and then in the election the Hungarians will decide on whether they want a Brussels puppet government or a national government. This will be decided by the Hungarians. My only job is to make it clear to the Hungarians that this will have serious consequences. Let’s not hand our country over to Brussels, let’s not become a colony of Brussels. This will have serious economic consequences. Let me give you an example. So today a Kádár Cube – a house with a garden – consumes or pays approximately 260,000 forints in a heating season. This is because Hungary has a system of household energy cost reductions. So 260,000! For the same heating season, a Slovak family in Slovakia pays 660,000 forints, and a Polish family pays 860,000. Every day Brussels demands that we give up the system of reductions in utility bills. But we have a national government that’s on the side of the people, and we shall not give it up. The Poles may pay three or four times as much, and the Slovaks three times as much, but that’s a matter for them. We’re not willing to do that. We have a system of protected household energy costs. If there’s a puppet government that’s manipulated from Brussels, the first thing it will do is abolish this. And at that moment, reduced energy bills will be history! This is described in every document, in every EU document: energy prices in Hungary must be brought closer to market prices – something which would kill Hungarian families. So now we’re not talking about who’s in power, but about what will happen to the country. And the same is true for the gender issue. And the same is true for the taxation of multinational companies. Every day they demand that we abolish taxes on multinationals. Okay, but then how will we maintain Hungary, if we don’t collect that tax from multinationals and we don’t collect that tax from banks? And the same will happen with the gender issue, and then gender activists will be allowed into schools! So it’s not just a question of whether the Tisza Party is in government, or whether there’s some kind of Brussels puppet government, or whether the national government remains, but the question is what the consequences of this will be. And these are serious things! I’m working so that by the time we get to the election, which is expected in over a year, or something like a year from now, as decided by the President of the Republic, every Hungarian should be aware of what’s at stake in this election.
Now that we’ve returned to the economy, let’s talk about what you’ve just mentioned: that, despite the difficult situation, the Government isn’t giving up on its economic development and family support goals. What can be done, what must be done to achieve these goals – despite the difficult circumstances?
The alpha and omega – the beginning and end of everything, the most important point – is that Ukraine must not be allowed to become a member of the European Union. Last week the European People’s Party, which includes Tisza, made a decision to send another 5 billion euros to Ukraine. So if this money is sent out of Europe it will be very difficult for Hungary to achieve its goals; it won’t be impossible, but it will be much more difficult. So if we want what’s good for ourselves, the amount of money flowing from Europe to Ukraine must be reduced. This is a real domestic political debate, because not only Tisza, but also DK [Democratic Coalition] – the Gyurcsány party – is saying the same thing. So except perhaps for Mi Hazánk [Our Homeland], which isn’t clear, today the Hungarian opposition – all the other opposition parties – are in favour of financial support, military support, and Ukraine’s rapid accession. The national side is against it. This is the fundamental issue in Hungarian politics today. I think this is what will determine the ten to twenty years of the next generation. Incidentally, I talked about this to young people this week. So the most important thing is to remain firm on the issue of Ukraine. And in the meantime, no matter what data comes, let’s not give up on our goals. One: all jobs must be protected! There are now 4.7 million people in work. No matter what difficulties there are in Europe, no matter what difficulties foreign companies operating in Hungary encounter at home, we must protect jobs. The second thing is that the tax reduction programme must be implemented. And we decided last week – but perhaps we haven’t announced it yet – that we have an industrial development policy for this year: we want to open 100 new factories this year. The construction of some of them has perhaps already begun, but since for economic growth more than this is needed, we raised this 100 to 150. So in Hungary this year we’ll be supporting not 100, but 150 factories. And we mustn’t forget about the small ones, as strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises remains a strategic issue for Hungary. In the meantime, the price reduction policy must be continued: after food prices, industrial goods will come next. There’s a government meeting next Wednesday, and I’d like to make decisions about this there. And, as we’ve promised pensioners, around October we’ll implement the VAT refund on food; the work on that is in progress, and it must also happen. If we do all this, then the year 2025 will be okay. We’re now discussing the 2026 annual budget. Now we’re waiting for the opinion of the Fiscal Council on how this year’s data – which shows lower growth – will affect the 2026 budget; so we’re consulting with them. I believe that the 2026 budget, which is an anti-war, pro-peace budget, will stand its ground even under these circumstances, and we won’t have to give up any of our goals – not only in 2025, but also in 2026.
The subjects I’ve been asking Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about included the condition of the Hungarian and European economies, support for Ukraine and its EU accession, and the related political debates.